Available in USThe bracket is down to its sharpest edges. France are already through to the semi-finals after dismantling Morocco 2–0 on July 9 — the only team left on a perfect record, the only side yet to need extra time, and now the clear outright favourite. Three quarter-finals remain, and they will decide France’s semi-final opponent and the entire other half of the draw. If you are mapping out futures, parlays or match bets from Canada, here is the full picture: every tie, every path, and where the market sees value as of July 10.
The Bracket at a Glance
| QF | Match | Date (ET) | Venue | Result / Status | SF feed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QF1 | France vs Morocco | 9 Jul | Gillette Stadium, Foxborough | France 2–0 (Mbappé 60′, Dembélé 66′) | → SF1 |
| QF2 | Spain vs Belgium | 10 Jul, 15:00 | SoFi Stadium, LA | TODAY | → SF1 (vs France) |
| QF3 | Norway vs England | 11 Jul, 17:00 | Hard Rock Stadium, Miami | Sat | → SF2 |
| QF4 | Argentina vs Switzerland | 11 Jul, 21:00 | Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City | Sat | → SF2 |
Semi-final 1: France vs Winner QF2 (Spain or Belgium) — Tuesday July 14, 3:00 PM ET, AT&T Stadium, Dallas. Semi-final 2: Winner QF3 (Norway or England) vs Winner QF4 (Argentina or Switzerland) — Wednesday July 15, 3:00 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta.
The Outright Market — Tiers and Value
France’s quarter-final win reshaped the outright picture overnight. Here is how the seven remaining sides stack up:
| Tier | Team | Odds (decimal) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Favourite | France | 2.35–2.46 | Perfect 6/6, through to SF1, Mbappé 8 goals. Shortest since opening |
| Contenders | Spain | 4.70–5.78 | 0 goals conceded, record defensive run. Faces Belgium today |
| Argentina | 4.90–5.43 | Holders, Messi 8 goals (21 career WC — record). Faces Switzerland Sat | |
| England | 5.60–6.41 | Kane 6 goals, but missing Quansah/Henderson/James | |
| Dark horse | Norway | 15.89 | Beat Brazil, Haaland 7 goals. Materially shorter than the other two |
| Long shots | Belgium | 31.0–47.62 | Golden generation, but Onana out (ACL) |
| Switzerland | 31.0–52.63 | First QF since 1954, penalty-shootout winners |
Source: Kalshi exchange via Covers / FanDuel via FOX, decimal, Canadian standard. Ranges reflect book-to-book variation as of July 9, 2026.
QF2: Spain vs Belgium (Today, 3:00 PM ET)
The marquee game of the day. Spain’s record-breaking six consecutive World Cup clean sheets — goalkeeper Unai Simón has surpassed Walter Zenga’s 1990 mark — against Belgium’s attacking talent, minus the midfield anchor Amadou Onana (ACL, out for the tournament). The H2H is one-sided: Spain have won 6 of the last 7 meetings. Spain are 1.61 favourites; Belgium 5.50. The winner walks into a semi-final against France.
Full breakdown: Spain vs Belgium preview.
QF3: Norway vs England (Saturday 11 Jul, 5:00 PM ET)
The fairy tale versus the establishment. Norway have never been to a major-tournament quarter-final before; they got here by beating Brazil 2–1 on a Haaland brace. England have Kane (6 goals) and Bellingham, but are missing Quansah (2-match ban), Henderson (wrist surgery, out), and likely Reece James (hamstring doubt). Miami’s forecast heat index of ~106°F adds another variable. England are 1.94 favourites; Norway 3.80.
Full breakdown: Norway vs England preview.
QF4: Argentina vs Switzerland (Saturday 11 Jul, 9:00 PM ET)
The holders against the surprise package. Argentina have won both previous World Cup meetings with Switzerland (1966 and 2014), and Messi has 8 goals this tournament plus the all-time career record of 21. But the defending champions have conceded in each of their last three knockout games, and Gonzalo Montiel may be rested to avoid a semi-final booking ban. Switzerland have not conceded in regulation in either knockout round and beat Colombia on penalties in the R16 — their first quarter-final since 1954. Argentina are 1.80 favourites; Switzerland 6.00.
| Match | 1 | X | 2 | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain vs Belgium | 1.61 | 3.95 | 5.50 | July 10, 2026 |
| Norway vs England | 3.80 | 3.50 | 1.94 | July 10, 2026 |
| Argentina vs Switzerland | 1.80 | 3.50 | 6.00 | July 10, 2026 |
Sources: DraftKings via SI (QF2), bet365 via Squawka (QF3/QF4), decimal, Canadian standard.
The Golden Boot Race
The scoring battle at the top is now a two-player duel:
| Player | Team | Goals | Next game |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kylian Mbappé | France | 8 | SF1 (14 Jul) |
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | 8 | QF4 vs Switzerland (11 Jul) |
| Erling Haaland | Norway | 7 | QF3 vs England (11 Jul) |
| Harry Kane | England | 6 | QF3 vs Norway (11 Jul) |
Books are split on the favourite: FOX/Covers make Mbappé the front-runner at ~1.95, while FanDuel still has Messi at ~2.20. Haaland at 8.50 is the value outsider if Norway advance and he keeps scoring. Kane at 10.0 needs England to go deep and for him to find another gear.
The Canadian Angle
Canada’s own tournament ended in the Round of 16 (Morocco 3–0), but the bracket still matters for Canadian bettors. The outright market is at its most interesting point — prices shorten sharply from the quarters onward, so locking in futures now, before the semi-final field is set, offers the best remaining value. Norway at 15.89 is the standout long-shot: they have already beaten Brazil and have the tournament’s third-top scorer.
- France are through to SF1 after beating Morocco 2–0 — the only team on a perfect 6/6 record.
- Three QFs remain: Spain–Belgium (today), Norway–England and Argentina–Switzerland (Saturday).
- France (2.35–2.46) are the clear outright favourite; Spain and Argentina are joint contenders around 5.00.
- The Golden Boot is a two-horse race: Mbappé 8, Messi 8, with books split on the favourite.
- SF1: France vs QF2 winner (14 Jul, Dallas). SF2: QF3 winner vs QF4 winner (15 Jul, Atlanta).
For today’s game see the Spain vs Belgium preview and the July 10 predictions. Saturday’s ties are broken down in the Norway vs England preview. Track the futures on the World Cup 2026 odds hub and the predictions page.
Odds reflect media-reported decimal lines as of July 9–10, 2026 and will move. 19+, please bet responsibly and only where legal in your province. New customers can compare current World Cup pricing with partners such as Betibet and Spinstar.bet, with stakes and returns in CAD.
