Available in USOne game today, one enormous question: can Belgium become the first team at this World Cup to put a ball past Unai Simón? Spain arrive at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles with a record that borders on absurd — five matches played, zero goals conceded, six consecutive World Cup clean sheets stretching back to 2022, a run that broke Walter Zenga’s iconic 1990 record. Belgium arrive with a point to prove, a golden generation in its twilight, and a midfield hole where Amadou Onana used to be. Here is how I see QF2, and where the value sits for a Canadian bettor pricing this up in CAD.
The Case for Spain
Luis de la Fuente’s side have been the tournament’s defensive masterpiece. Five clean sheets in five games. Nine goals scored, zero conceded. The 1–0 win over Portugal in the Round of 16 — sealed by Mikel Merino’s 91st-minute header — was the tightest of their wins, but the pattern is consistent: Spain control possession, compress space, and wait for one moment of quality at the other end.
The head-to-head favours them heavily: six wins and a draw in the last seven all-competition meetings with Belgium, with 16 goals scored and just 3 conceded. The one World Cup precedent — Belgium won the 1986 quarter-final on penalties — feels like ancient history against the current run.
Predicted XI (Sports Mole / RotoWire): Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal.
The Case for Belgium
Rudi Garcia’s Belgium are not here to make up the numbers. A 4–1 demolition of the USA in the Round of 16 proved they can still turn it on — Charles De Ketelaere scored twice and Kevin De Bruyne ran the game — and they have the pedigree to compete with anyone on a single day.
The problem is the cost of getting here. Amadou Onana ruptured his ACL in the 21st minute of that USA win and is out for the tournament, leaving a gaping hole in central midfield. Zeno Debast is a late fitness doubt. And Belgium have conceded in both knockout games (3–2 vs Senegal in the Round of 32, 4–1 vs USA), which makes the prospect of cracking Spain’s record defence feel like an even steeper ask.
Predicted XI (Sports Mole / RotoWire): Courtois; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Vanaken, Tielemans; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere.
The Odds
| Outcome | Selection | Odds (decimal) | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain | 1.61 | July 10, 2026 |
| X | Draw | 3.95 | July 10, 2026 |
| 2 | Belgium | 5.50 | July 10, 2026 |
Source: DraftKings via SI, decimal, Canadian standard. Confirm the live price before staking.
Spain at 1.61 is short but defensible given the clean-sheet record and the H2H dominance. The market is telling you Belgium need something exceptional, and without Onana the midfield engine is compromised.
My Pick
Spain to win and under 2.5 goals. Every Spain knockout tie at this tournament has ended 1–0. Belgium’s best chance is keeping the game tight and hoping for a set-piece or a De Bruyne moment of magic, which means this is likely a low-scoring affair either way. If your book offers Spain to win and under 2.5 as a combined market, that is where the sharpest value sits — it prices in the way Spain actually play, not just the binary outcome.
For the straight 1X2: Spain at 1.61 is the right side. Belgium at 5.50 is only live if De Bruyne produces a career-defining performance and Spain’s defensive concentration slips for the first time all tournament. I would not bet against this Spain defence on the evidence so far.
Conditions at SoFi
SoFi Stadium has a fixed roof with open sides — the field is sheltered from direct sun, and the forecast of 78–81°F with cloud clearing to sunshine by kickoff will not trouble either team. Wind at 5–10 mph is largely a non-factor under the canopy. A Heat Advisory is in effect for greater Los Angeles, but the stadium environment keeps conditions comfortable.
- Spain have not conceded a single goal at this World Cup — 5 clean sheets, 6 consecutive WC clean sheets (all-time record).
- Belgium lost Amadou Onana (ACL, tournament over) and Zeno Debast is a fitness doubt.
- Head-to-head: Spain lead 6W-1D in the last 7 all-competition meetings.
- Spain are 1.61 favourites; Belgium 5.50 (DraftKings via SI, July 10, 2026).
- The winner faces France in Semi-final 1 on July 14 in Dallas.
For more on Spain’s tournament path see the Spain team page, catch the QF1 recap in our July 9 recap, and track the full bracket in the quarter-final bracket breakdown. Futures are on the World Cup 2026 odds hub.
Odds reflect media-reported decimal lines as of July 10, 2026 and will move. 19+, please bet responsibly and only where legal in your province. New customers can compare current World Cup pricing with partners such as Zotabet and Blitz.bet, with stakes and returns in CAD.
