Available in USOne game today, and it is a heavyweight: France vs Spain, Semi-final 1, at AT&T Stadium in Dallas (3:00 PM ET, 2:00 PM local). The outright favourite against the team that has beaten them in two straight semi-finals. There is no easy angle here — the match line is almost as tight as they come outside of France’s slim favouritism — so this is about finding the one read the market has not fully priced. Here is how I see it, and where the value sits for a Canadian bettor working in CAD.
The Case for France
Six games, six wins, 16 goals, and clean sheets in every knockout tie. France are the only side left on a perfect record and the outright favourite at 2.37–2.50. Mbappé is fit ("100 percent," per Deschamps), level on eight goals in the Golden Boot race, and Ousmane Dembélé plus the tournament’s assist leader Michael Olise give France a front line no one else can match. If Tchouaméni returns as expected, the midfield regains its anchor too.
The pitch, for France, is simple: they are the best team in the tournament on the evidence, and the market says so.
The Case for Spain
Spain have conceded one goal all tournament. One. Their run of six consecutive World Cup clean sheets is the longest in the competition’s history, and they are unbeaten in 36 matches — a draw or win here ties Italy’s all-time record of 37. Then there is the recent head-to-head: Spain have beaten this France core in the Euro 2024 semi-final (2–1) and the 2025 Nations League semi-final (5–4). They do not fear this fixture; they own the recent version of it.
Nico Williams is pushing to start, and the predicted XI has the usual spine — Rodri and Pedri in midfield, Yamal and Oyarzabal the attacking threats.
The Odds
| Outcome | Selection | Odds (decimal) | As of (ET) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France | 2.35 | July 13, 2026 |
| X | Draw | 3.10 | July 13, 2026 |
| 2 | Spain | 3.10 | July 13, 2026 |
Source: FanDuel via CBS Sports, decimal, Canadian standard. The draw and Spain shortened mildly from 3.20 over the rest days; France flat. Confirm the live price before staking.
My Pick
Under 2.5 goals. This is the read I trust most. Spain’s knockout football has been a procession of tight 1–0s, France have kept clean sheets throughout the knockouts, and two elite, defensively excellent sides with a final on the line rarely produce an open game. The caution that comes with the stakes points the same way. If your book prices under 2.5 goals attractively, that is where the sharpest value sits — it bets on how these teams actually play, not on guessing the winner of a near coin-flip.
For a side bet, Spain at 3.10 is the value play against the price if you back the recent history over the market’s respect for France’s record. France at 2.35 is the "correct" pick on form, but the number is short for a game this close, and Spain have already shown twice that they can win exactly this fixture. Expect a slow burn — and do not be surprised if it needs extra time.
Conditions in Dallas
AT&T Stadium’s retractable roof will almost certainly be closed with air conditioning in the mid-July Texas heat, so the field should be climate-controlled regardless of the outdoor forecast (mostly sunny, high near 88°F, 40% storm chance in the afternoon). Weather is unlikely to shape the game.
- Only one game today: SF1 France vs Spain, 3:00 PM ET in Dallas.
- France 2.35, draw 3.10, Spain 3.10 (FanDuel via CBS, July 13, 2026); France also outright favourite at 2.37–2.50.
- Main pick: under 2.5 goals — both sides defensively elite, Spain’s knockouts all low-scoring.
- Value side: Spain at 3.10, backed by two recent semi-final wins over this France core.
- Winner reaches the July 19 final; loser goes to the third-place play-off on July 18.
For the full matchup see the France vs Spain preview, tomorrow’s tie is in the England vs Argentina preview, and the last-four picture is in the semi-final bracket. Track the futures on the World Cup 2026 odds hub and the season-long picks on the predictions page.
Odds reflect media-reported decimal lines as of July 13–14, 2026 and will move. 19+, please bet responsibly and only where legal in your province. New customers can compare current World Cup pricing with partners such as Spinit and WinRolla, with stakes and returns in CAD.
